How do you know someone is really ready?

It's one of the most important calls a talent leader makes, and one of the hardest to prove: who's ready to step into a bigger leadership role. The résumés are strong, the reviews are positive, the recommendations sincere. Yet the call still comes down to instinct, because the evidence doesn't answer the question you're really asking.

The problem isn't a lack of evidence. It's that most of what you rely on was never designed to support a readiness decision. To do that, evidence has to pass three tests: it has to be Valid, Trusted, and Scalable. But those three pull against each other.

Run your own methods through them and it gets uncomfortable. Performance reviews scale, but they measure last year's job, not the next. They fail Valid. A senior leader's read is the most trusted evidence there is, but you can't put them in every room. It fails Scalable. Almost everything you rely on clears one test and breaks on another. It's why the same candidate can split the room.

The way through is to watch people make the kinds of decisions the role actually requires. Business simulations create those opportunities, turning how people perform into evidence that's valid — a record of what people did, not a proxy — and that you can trust and scale. It's the approach behind leadership programs at Diageo, Microsoft, Cummins, and other global enterprises.

In 45 minutes, you'll be able to:

• Diagnose which of the three tests your evidence is failing
• Score any assessment you run against all three, not just the one it passes
• Identify one change to strengthen your evidence, starting with your next talent review

You'll leave with a practical framework for any readiness decision you face: succession, high-potential, or promotion.

Matthew Shell is the Senior Business Development Manager at Capsim Management Simulations, where he assists corporate clients and authors with simulation-based training solutions. Over the last five years, Matt has worked with organizations worldwide to hire and develop talent by assisting in creating custom inbox simulations. Additionally, Matt has coordinated with Fortune 500 companies, including Microsoft, S&P Global Market Intelligence, Cummins, and Eli Lilly, to create both self-directed and facilitator-led simulation learning programs.